Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Election Post Mortem

It's old news at this point, but it wouldn't be right not to grade myself on the election results. As you recall, I built a model for predicting the house results. I assigned each race a probability and added them all up. The number I arrived at was a 71 seat pick-up for the Republicans. The actual number will be either be 63 or 64 seats, depending on the outcome of New York 1 (the Hamptons).

I will give myself a B+ most prognosticators were in the low 50s, so I was correct in assuming the tide would be bigger than most thought, but I overshot the mark. I believe Democrats waged an effective last minute get-out-the-vote effort that prevented an even bigger blow out.

In my view, Democrats should be happy, or at least relieved. There really weren't any big surprises that went against them. No Barney Franks or Steny Hoyers. No Dennis Kuciniches (sigh). And they held on to a lot of close ones. They won 23 seats with less than 52% of the vote and another 22 with less than 55%.

And now the real fun starts: handicapping the Republican field for the White House. But that can wait a couple months.

Monday, November 8, 2010

The Real Reason To Ban Earmarks

Yesterday, Mitch McConnell said that banning earmarks won't save any money. By that, we are to assume "real" money, because earmarks only add up to $20-30 billion a year - remarkably, not much in the scheme of things.

McConnell is completely missing the point, and he was properly rebuked by Jim DeMint today. DeMint pointed out that earmarks - pork - are used to push bad legislation over the finish line. Obamacare would not have passed without the Cornhusker Kickback and the Louisiana Purchase. The odious Dodd Frank bill would not have passed without goodies carved out for Scott Brown.

Get rid of earmarks, and we make it that much harder for bad law to be born.

Saturday, November 6, 2010

Update Soon

Note: I will submit a final analysis of my ability as a prognosticator as soon as final numbers are in. There are still a number of races that haven't been decided.

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Final Call - 71 Seats

Here are the Naked Dollar's final predictions:

+71 seats for the Republicans in the House
+9 seats for the Republicans in the Senate
+13 governor seats for the Republicans

As predicted a couple of weeks ago, control of the Senate will likely come down to West Virginia and Washington. Republicans need to carry both.

Monday, November 1, 2010

National Pulse Index - November 1st

The picture is clear now - Republicans have all the momentum heading into tomorrow. I will make final predictions tomorrow. Right now it looks like Repubs pick up 71 house seats, 9 senate seats, and 10 governorships. An epic meltdown for Obama, Pelosi, and over reaching liberalism  is in the offing.

Year End Tax Suicides

A while ago I suggested that people might actually commit suicide towards the end of this year to avoid the enormous hike in the estate tax at the end of this year:

See: Death and Taxes

It seems that more people are picking up on this: http://www.newser.com/article/d9j5lab81/wyoming-congresswoman-says-some-constituents-planning-to-die-before-dec-31-estate-tax-rise.html