Monday, July 12, 2010

Prediction Markets Update

Here are the current odds of various events happening according to Intrade prediction markets (before year end):

Republicans take over House        56%
Republicans take over Senate        14
Sarah Palin runs for President        61
Sarah Palin gets nominated            18
Harry Reid wins reelection             53
Cap & Trade becomes law             17
Obama reelected                          60
Bin Laden Captured                       5
Someone drops the euro               10

And you can put a stake in real money movie futures becoming a reality. Cantor Fitzgerald has laid off the staff members who were going to be involved after lawmakers, led by Blanch Lincoln, bowed to film industry pressure.

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