Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Election Post Mortem

It's old news at this point, but it wouldn't be right not to grade myself on the election results. As you recall, I built a model for predicting the house results. I assigned each race a probability and added them all up. The number I arrived at was a 71 seat pick-up for the Republicans. The actual number will be either be 63 or 64 seats, depending on the outcome of New York 1 (the Hamptons).

I will give myself a B+ most prognosticators were in the low 50s, so I was correct in assuming the tide would be bigger than most thought, but I overshot the mark. I believe Democrats waged an effective last minute get-out-the-vote effort that prevented an even bigger blow out.

In my view, Democrats should be happy, or at least relieved. There really weren't any big surprises that went against them. No Barney Franks or Steny Hoyers. No Dennis Kuciniches (sigh). And they held on to a lot of close ones. They won 23 seats with less than 52% of the vote and another 22 with less than 55%.

And now the real fun starts: handicapping the Republican field for the White House. But that can wait a couple months.

1 comment:

  1. Whatever the grade it was a historic moment for the GOP. The country cast its' ballot that has not seen since 1938? (i think that year is correct).
    The Republican's (my party) has real work to do and they are not off the hook for actions not mere words. I am optimistic about the new leadership and hope the wins don't give them a second to sit and rest.
    Every second counts! Every day! Every month. Read Newt's speech to the Republican Gov Conference where he charges a 12 point call to action on the state level. You know where my vote is headed. Someone that thinks like this and is not shy to lead.