Tuesday, December 21, 2010

The New Electoral Math

The results are in, and there is new electoral math to consider. Gaining congressional seats are:

Texas                 +4
Florida               +2
Georgia              +1
Arizona              +1
Nevada              +1
South Carolina    +1
Utah                  +1
Washington        +1

Losing seats are:

New York           -2
Ohio                  -2
Illinois                -1
Iowa                  -1
Pennsylvania      -1
Massachusetts    -1
Michigan            -1
Missouri             -1
Mississippi          -1
New Jersey         -1

The media today is focused on how many extra house seats this translates into for the Republicans. The answer is not insubstantial, maybe around 10 to 12 seats. But lost in the wash here is that this also changes the number of electoral votes from each state, and this will have a considerable impact on the 2012 presidential election.

The math is much more straightforward than trying to guess congressional outcomes because we don't have to see how redistricting plays out. Texas, for instance, is s slam dunk to produce an additional 4 electoral votes for any Republican.

The way I see it, Texas, Georgia, Arizona, South Carolina, and Utah are a lock for Republicans. That's a pickup of 8 votes.

Republicans also pick up seats - relatively - by losing less badly in New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, Michigan, and New Jersey. That's another 6 seats.

Democrats likely pick up single votes in Washington and Mississippi. Our total is now +12 for the Republicans.

That leaves Nevada, Ohio, Iowa, Pennsylvania, and Missouri. I figure out of that the GOP nets one more seat, so that makes the tally +13. That is no small deal, especially in our era of close elections.

I can't let one other thing pass without comment. Notice any patterns here? Perhaps that almost all the losers are Blue states and all the winners Red? This is clearly due to the rampant mismanagement of states like New York, New Jersey, and Illinois. Spending and taxation have driven citizens to more economically friendly environs. Can't we learn a lesson here?

P.S. Note Sarah Palin lookalike at the chalkboard!

1 comment:

  1. The only other comparison you'll hear is what the candidates would have gotten if this new math would have been in place in earlier elections.

    In 2008, Obama would have gotten 359 electoral votes instead of 365. Still well over the 270 needed to win.

    In 2000, Bush would have gotten 285 instead of 278. But he still would have needed Florida. If it went with Gore, it would have been a 269-269 tie!