Those of you who have followed the Naked Dollar know we like prediction markets, which can be found at Intrade. These are continuously trading contracts where speculators make markets on the odds of certain binary future outcomes, e.g. the U.S. gets hit by a Cat 5 hurricane this year or not. If the contract trades at, say, 42, it means the "market" thinks there is a 42% probability of the event occuring.
Prediction markets are interesting because they give a "best available" probability on all sorts of events. They are particularly interesting for politics; since they involve actual money, they tend to be more accurate than polls.
Here are some current probablities and whether I am (hypotheitically) long or short:
Obama re-elected 57% (short)
Romney nominated 34% (long)
Bachmann nominated 16% (neutral)
Huntsman nominated 9% (big time short)
Perry nominated 17% (long)
Pawlenty nominated 8% (short)
Cain nominated 2% (long)
Euro dropped by any nation by 2013 25% (long)
Note that the event doesn't have to actually happen to make money since the market is continuous. For instance, if the probability of Cain's nomination rises from 2% to 4%, one doubles their money (assuming the trade is unwound at that time).