Monday, November 5, 2012

2012 Election Models - The Final Call

First, the electoral prediction. In 2004, this model hit the totals on the head. In 2008, it was really, really, close. To understand how this model is constructed, click here.

The call this year is Obama 281, Romney 257. Here's the time series:
Holy cow, does this look close. One medium size state sways it. May I say, I pray to God the model is wrong this time. On Wednesday, I'll either be pleased for the country or pleased for the model. I'll take country. Personally, I believe Romney will win.

Some better news can be gleaned from our momentum model, where all the late mo belongs to Republicans:

And the cumulative...

(To understand this model, click here.)

Republicans have had a huge surge since the first debate, one that has actually accelerated lately, if quietly. I say "quietly" because it has happened while presidential polling hasn't move a whole lot. But, perhaps, there is an underlying current here. The last surge is the most important. It doesn't guarantee anything, mind you. Gerald Ford had a big late move in 1976 but needed one more day.

We shall see. Buckle up.

No comments:

Post a Comment