Sunday, May 10, 2015

The Joyous Republican Free-for-All

A message to GOP voters: don't be in a hurry to pick a horse. There's no hurry, we will learn much more over the coming months.

For conservatives, we have an embarrassment of riches, quite the opposite of four years ago when every option seemed like settling. An informal, totally unscientific poll of friends suggests most are leaning towards Walker. I am inclined to agree, but we need to see how he and others handle the rigors of the campaign trail. We need to see them handle debates, a hostile press corps, and unfolding world affairs, etc.

But just for fun, let's give some early ratings to the potential field. I'll give them a grades for desirability and electability, and I've included every conceivable name. This is totally my own opinion, so feel free to disagree. I'll also show the current prediction market odds for those names that have them.

(You may notice that the odds for all the candidates adds up to over 200%, which is obviously impossible. These odds come from a new political gambling site called PredictIt, and it's still highly inefficient. Easy money, if you're interested.)

By reckoning, there are at least four outstanding potential candidates. There are Republicans of every stripe and inclination: establishment, Tea Party, social conservative, and libertarian. There are three Hispanics, three women, an African-American, and one guy with orange hair. How much fun this is going to be compared with Hillary's forced march!

Sit back and enjoy.


  1. Not exactly an embarrassment of riches. The top 3 might not even be able to win their own state. The rest are roadkill against Hillary.

    Expect the GOP propaganda machine to bring Bush home with some help from W campaigning in the South.

    1. Wow. A 10% fee on profit!! I'll stick with the sportsbooks. You get 100% of profit.

  2. You forgot Rand Paul.

  3. So Scott .... How about an update after the first Debate melodrama ...