Thursday, June 2, 2016

The Democrats' Dilemma



Hello, operator? I'd like to make a collect call to Debbie Wasserman Schultz...


As Naked Dollar readers know, I am a big fan of prediction markets, where real people bet real money on political (and other) outcomes. They aren't fool proof, but they're better than polls, and they offer the best probabilistic look at the future based on the current fact set. And sometimes, they offer fascinating insights.

Take this one.

Right now, there is a an 86% chance that Hillary will win the nomination, meaning there's a 14% chance that she won't. (Interesting, given that she's already declared herself the winner.) But there's also a 34% chance that she will be indicted before the end of the year. That means, math fans, that there's a 29% chance (.86 x .34) that the Democrats will nominate someone who will then fall under indictment, or they will knowingly nominate someone who's already under indictment.

When they say there's never been a cycle like this one, they aren't kidding.

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