Monday, September 19, 2016

Election Model Update

Trump has moved closer, for sure, but before Republicans get too excited, I would offer two caveats:

  1. Trump is still only marginally ahead of his previous high point in late July.
  2. The non-weighted, "simple" model still skews heavily to Hillary. In this model, all electoral votes in a state are awarded to a single candidate. So, for instance, HRC currently has a 54% chance of winning Florida. In the simple model, she wins all 29 electoral votes. In the weighted model, she only gets 13.3.

If probabilities remain where they are, and Clinton still has a greater number of vote-heavy states where she's north of 50%, it implies that things could more easily break her way on election day. Having said this, state probabilities tend to gravitate away from toss-ups as the day approaches.

Right now, the model has Clinton winning 290 to Trump's 248. You can see the progress Trump has made here:

On the other hand, the simple model has Clinton up 323 to 215. Here's the state-by-state breakdown:

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