National Pulse Index Update - July 31

To see what this is click here.

Here's the latest:

And the cumulative graph:

The last week has been quiet with no real gain for either side. As there's a tendency for these data (in the top graph) to oscillate, one might expect to see things swing Democrat for a bit, but we'll see.

Overall, Republican polling gains have been relentless since April, and it's even started to be reflected in the presidential race numbers, however slightly. Also, as all these races are at least somewhat of a referendum on the battle for the White House, we can conclude that Obama's attacks on Bain have been ineffective and his "you didn't build that" gaffe may have hurt badly (the last big Republican polling surge happened after he said that).

Look for the White House to go even more negative and roll out any number of attack strategies. This will be self-defeating, though, as presidential candidates viewed as glowering pessimists almost never win. Think back through the last dozen elections or so - the cheery optimist wins every time. Obama played that role well in '08, but he has turned into the angry scold this time.