Sorry I haven't updated in a while - been busy! We'll only do the pulse model today. For a complete explanation, click here.
It's comeback time for the Dems since their convention:
You can see that this is the first really sustained and deep period of progress they have made in the polls. Romney winning is no longer a layup. He has his work cut out for him and it will likely be close. I say "likely" because we are still 100 years from election day, and polls swing enormously in just the last week, and they typically swing to the challenger. Jay Cost has an excellent piece on this here. (Cost is one of the better analysts out there, by the way.)
Anyway, the Republicans remain ahead, overall, since I started the metric in April:
You can see, though, that Democrats have successfully erased about two months of Republican gains, and they finally broke the consistent uptrend that had been in place.
It will be very interesting to see what happens next. The Dems' convention bounce is still in place, but fading. Can they maintain it. Stay tuned. Promise another update in a few days.