A few months back, I wrote about how a Romney victory could be the last presidential win for the GOP, ever. (See Mitt Romney, the Last Republican President?) The thesis was that we are at a crossroads, and that fixes, for say, things like entitlement reform, are politically difficult. Should Mitt turn out to be an incrementalist in the style of a George H.W. Bush, the Tea Party will split from the GOP. End of GOP.
Here's another scenario, perhaps one even more obvious: Romney loses. Conservatives and tea partiers in the GOP will say, that's it, we're done. We held our noses and nominated a moderate, and we couldn't even beat a president with the weakest hand in a century. Look for the rise of the "Constitutional Party."
Mind you, I hold no personal affection for the GOP. They have proved to feckless time and again. But splitting the GOP into two would give the left a clear field, and this would be a disaster felt for generations (and we certainly wouldn't recover in MY lifetime).
So, to avoid any of this, Mitt will need some serious backbone. Does he have it?
A few months ago, I would have said no. Then, the selection of Paul Ryan, to me, signaled that Mitt knows what needs to be done, and he's up for the fight. But lately, the campaign is suddenly not punching very hard, likely hoping a softer image will win over some stray independents. What is this business about liking "some parts" of Obamacare? Holy crap.
To Mitt, I say: no no no no no no NO! Not only does this bode poorly for how you will govern, but it makes it less likely you will have the chance. You must hammer the fraud in the oval office, and you must start adding specificity to your campaign.
If you treat voters like idiots, they will act like idiots. More precisely, they will vote like idiots.
Rinse and repeat. The next election will be about suckering the Latino vote with Marco Rubio. The Corporates can control him and the angry white man will vote for him because has that Desi Arnaz thing going for him. Everybody will be happy and unified to beat Hilary in the most important election of our time -- the third one in a row.
ReplyDeleteI actually think losing the Tea Party would be the best thing that could happen for the GOP.
ReplyDeleteThen they could actually go for a proper small government argument and stop waging war across the globe or regulating marriage, drugs, abortion etc...
Right now those of us that are socially liberal end up leaning more democrat, but if the GOP got out of our bedrooms then that could easily change.
@graham - I find your comments confusing. Do you actually listen to what the Tea Party says? They are 100% about small government. The movement started as a protest against the sudden growth in government in Obama's early days, and has been equally vocal about ridding ourselves of big gov conservatives. They almost never touch social issues. Your comments would be more appropriate if applied to evangelical conservatism.
ReplyDeleteAs for leaning towards voting Democrat because you are socially liberal, if we go the way of Greece, you will long for the good old days when you worrying about things like gay rights was a front-burner issue. None of it matters if we are bankrupt.