Thursday, August 16, 2012

National Pulse Index Update - August 16

To understand what this is, click here.

Not a lot of drama, poll-wise, over the last week, with a slightly favorable showing for Republicans:
The basic story, though, is intact, which is that we have an unbroken trend-line since the beginning favoring Republican candidates:

(Note that very little of these data come from after the Ryan announcement.)

Here's what's interesting, though. As you know, this metric looks at all polls, whether for president or the 3rd District in Ohio. The presidential polls really haven't moved very much, so what's driving the upward trend for Republicans is all the other races. This disparity can't continue; either the GOP house and Senate numbers will snap back, or Obama's numbers will erode.

What is likely happening is that as GOP House and Senate members have been getting their message out and it's selling. Perhaps people were more entrenched in their presidential views, so those polls remain stickier. But should these trends persist, it is likely that they will eventually be reflected in the presidential race numbers. Obama is skating on thin ice, as it were.

Check in next week to see if there's a "Ryan effect."

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