A couple of weeks back, The Naked Dollar begged the Romney
campaign to start getting specific. You don’t get a mandate to do big,
important things unless you tell the country first, “elect me, and this is what
I will do.”
Allow me the fantasy that someone was listening. The piece ran as an op-ed in the New York Post, so who knows? Congressman
Ryan has brought wonderful clarity to the race, and he has specifically said
you need talk about the big things before you get elected, not after. The bland
campaign is no more.
Now I’m going to push my luck and try again. Ever want to
scream at the television, “Come on, say it, just say it!” For conservatives,
this has long been so, points you just couldn’t understand why your guy wasn’t
pounding into the table.
So, here are my two, and both involve taxes. The first
concerns Hauser’s Law. Ever hear of it? Didn’t think so. I doubt many
politicians have, either. It is the most important fact almost no one knows.
(Notice I said “fact,” because it is based on empirical evidence, not fuzzy
theory of the sort the Nobel committee is so enamored.)
Hauser’s Law points out that ever since World War II, the
average amount that the government collects as a percentage of GDP has averaged
19%, with incredibly little variation:
But here’s the thing, the top marginal rate has varied
between 28% and 92%. In case that’s
not sinking in, let me put it this way: no matter what the top rates are, tax
revenues are about the same as a percentage of the economy. Incredible, if you
think about it. High rates discourage economic activity, so they never produce
the outcome desired by their political authors. Low rates have the opposite
effect.
So, logic would dictate lowering rates until Hauser’s Law no
longer held. This would maximize both government revenue and personal liberty,
which should please both liberals and conservatives alike, except that if you
feed a liberal a Chardonnay or two they will usually tell you the tax code
isn’t just to raise money, it’s an instrument of “social justice.” They need to be called out
on that.
My other point concerns capital gains. They are taxed at
15%. This rate is lower than most income tax rates, but that’s for very good
reasons. First, this is investment, or “risk,” capital. We want people to risk
money on things because this is where jobs come from. Stuffing your cash in a
mattress creates no jobs. Bet on a start-up, and your investment probably goes
right to someone’s salary. My own start-up, I’m proud to say, has created 40
jobs, but we had to do a hell of a job convincing people it was worth the risk.
If their investment in us was being taxed at a much higher rate, it might have
been impossible.
Second, money used to make investments was already taxed when the investor first made it as income. It
didn’t appear out of nowhere, right? Mitt Romney has been paying capital gains
rates because he hasn’t had a job in a while, but all that money was already
taxed at higher rates.
These are simple things. Why are they so hard to say?
I think that most if Mitt's income is from carried interest, which is not the same as capital gains (though amazingly both are taxed the same way). He has lots of investment income too, for which there is capital at risk, but this is not the case for carried interest ...
ReplyDelete@Anonymous - Romney's been gone from Bain for over a decade, so it seems unlikely he's being allocated GP shares of their funds anymore, which would be the source of carried interest.
ReplyDeleteFair 'nuff, not sure if carried interest is reported in Schedule D or E, his E income small relative to D, and D is all blind trust stuff (half from one set up in 1995). In any event, fair to say that most of Mitt's wealth came from carried interest, and was never taxed as ordinary income?
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