Wednesday, October 24, 2012
Breaking News - Naked Dollar Electoral Model Shows Exact Tie!
After a comfortable lead all year for Obama, the Naked Dollar Electoral Model (NDEM) now shows the race at an exact tie in the electoral college, 269-269. Also, the Intrade Obama contract has plummeted to 56%. Naked Dollar readers should have made a lot of money if they read previous posts about the gross mispricing between the "big" presidential contracts and the state-by-state contracts. Interestingly, this arbitrage still exists because the state contracts (on which our model is based) say it's a 50/50 race, and yet the Obama contract is still at 56%. Look for further adjustment soon. Still a lot of easy money to be made on Intrade this cycle.
(To understand the NDEM, click here.)
Here's an historical view of Obama's contract. Note that the "price" can be interpreted as the odds of winning.
Let's check in with the Naked Dollar Pulse Index:
And the cumulative...
(To understand the Pulse Model, click here.)