Sunday, October 21, 2012

Election Models Update - October 21st

First, the Pulse Index:

And the cumulative view:

To understand this, click here.

Up is good for Republicans, down for Dems. Quite choppy of late. Interestingly, while Romney's poll numbers have been improving, which tends to push the chart up, this trend has largely been offset by somewhat weakening numbers for Republican Senate and House candidates. On the Senate side, this could have profound implications around Obamacare. We will examine this in more detail in a subsequent post.

Our Electoral College Model shows the race getting incredibly tight, but with a slight edge still in place for Obama:
(To understand this, click here.)

The current score: Obama 276, Romney 262. 270 needed to win. This is the closest the race has been since the numbers began. Interestingly, the "Obama to win" contract on Intrade remains at 61%, despite the state-by-state markets telling a different story (my electoral model relies on data from the state markets). The arbitrage opportunity I alluded to in the last post is still intact.

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