Friday, October 12, 2012

Election Models Update - October 12th

To understand this model, click here.

We can now see the effect of the first debate in the data:

Republicans are experiencing a pronounced rebound, and while it has only erased about 50% of what Democrats gained post-convention, we don't yet know where the bounce will end. Note that the model's volatility has increased in recent weeks.

Here's the cumulative view:

And here's the electoral college model:

To understand this model click here

Obama stands at 283 votes (19 fewer than last week), Romney 255 (19 more). 270 are needed to win. The market has moved considerably towards Romney, as I predicted a few weeks ago.

Incidentally, the election model guru everyone seems to love these days is Nate Silver who has a NY Times blog. Nate's at 290 to 248. His model relies on polls whereas we rely on prediction markets, i.e. the wisdom of crowds. Who will win, the crowds or the intellectual? History says the crowds.

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