Wednesday, October 27, 2010

October 27th Index Update

For an explanation of this, go here:

National Pulse Index

At this point we can say we've seen a momentum shift for the Republicans over the last week. Pennsylvania's senate race, much hyped when it appeared the Democrat Sestak was closing, now looks more solid for the Republicans. California and Connecticut are problematic, but Boxer's still not a lock. Here's the drill on the Senate: the Republicans will likely pick up nine seats and maybe a tenth, the tenth being Washington which is tight but with a slight edge to the Democrats. The 10th seat shifts Senate power.

Lots more house polls flooding in. My model now has the Republicans picking up 71 seats, which is considerably more than the conventional wisdom (which, itself, has been heading north rapidly - I'd say it's around 50 now). The way the model is constructed, it's almost impossible that it will change by more than three or four seats by Tuesday. this is a new one for me, so we'll see how I do.

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