Friday, October 15, 2010

Will These Two States Decide the Senate?

Some interesting trends over the last few days. House races seem to be firming for the Republicans while there is a whiff of momentum for Democrats on the Senate side. This may be because house polling data points are stretched over longer periods of time, over which there has been demonstrable Republican momentum, while Senate races are polled every few days, a time frame over which we can see a Dem bounce.

If there the latest polls are taken as gospel, the Republicans now fall one seat short of recapturing the Senate. This literally bounces back and forth every few days. The states to watch are West Virginia and Washington. Republicans have the edge in West Virginia and Dems in Washington, but the are virtually neck and neck, and very fluid.

I will update my house model in the next couple of days.

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